�ҹ��ش��豸��ʷ��δ��Ԥ��

2013-6-7

��ժҪ��ȶ��ҹ��豸��ҵ��ʷ״��ζԹ��Ľṹ��ҵ��жȡ��״��˷��δ��ش��豸��״��Ԥ�⡣

��ؼ��ʣ��豸��ҵ��ʷ��δ��Ԥ��

��ҹ��豸��ҵ�ھ��10�괴��20�귢չ��30��̨��ˮƽ�İ��͵ķܶ��ѽ��Թ��š��Ϻ��š��켯��Ϊ��ģ��൱��ģ��ˮƽ��ʵ��ķ��豸��ϵ��1998��ҹ��ҵ��ʱ�ԵĹ��󣬵�2004��ĵ��ض�ȱ��ֵ�2006��Ĺ��״��⣬��һϵ�еı仯��̡��ŵ��ҵ��Բ��豸��ҵҲ��ŵ��װ��ı仯��ڵ��ҵ��販�ĵĹ��У��ҹ��豸��ҵȡ��˾��Ŀ�ĳɼ��Ƕ�ʮһ��Ź��񾭼õĳ��ٷ�չ��Լ��һ�ֵ��Ƹĸ��Դ��Ծʽ��豸��ҵ��ʼ��ǰ��δ�еĻƽ�չʱ�ڡ�

��1. �ҹ��豸��ҵ��ʷ��

��1.1 ��豸��

��塱�ڼ��ҹ��豸��ҵ��ڳ��չ�׶Σ��ˮƽ��Խϵͣ��1500��ǧ��¡��ʮ�塱�ڼ䷢��豸��ҵ��Ѹ�ٷ�չ̬�ƣ��2005��Ѵ�8635.6��ǧ�ߡ��ʮһ�塱�ڼ䷢��豸��ҵ��λ��У�2006��ͻ��1��ǧ�ߣ��2008��ﵽ��ֵ13314.5��ǧ�ߣ�2009�꿪ʼ�ص��롰ʮ��塱��豸��ڸ�λ�ص��Ļ��ϣ�2011��ٴ��ʷ�¸ߣ��13998.67��ǧ�ߣ�2012��ֿ�ʼ�ص��

��Կ�� ʮһ�塱��ڷ��豸��λ��еĻ��ϣ��ϳ��ֻ��̬�ƣ�2009�꿪ʼ�ϴ��ȵĻص��2011��2012��2011��½�13.6%��

��ˮ�ַ��鹩Ӧ��ʮһ�塱�ڼ䱣��2000��ǧ��ң��롰ʮ��塱��ʼ��ߡ�

��顰ʮһ�塱�ڼ��1500��ǧ��/�꣬��Ѹ�٣��ļ��д��ء��Ž��豸��ҵ��ڣ��ʮ��塱��½��

��˵��ڡ�ʮһ�塱�ڼ�Ӵ�Ͷ�ʺ��з��ȵĻ��ϣ��γ��ȶ��ܣ��롰ʮ��塱��ܿ�ʼ�ͷţ�2012��ɰ��ǧ�߼��˵緢��10̨��

��ӵ�Դ�ṹ�Ͽ��豸��巢��豸��ռ�ı��½��2012��ռ64%��ˮ�硢��硢�˵��豸�ı��2012�꣬��ռ��豸��ı��ֱ��18%��9%��9%��

��1.2 ��ҵ��ж�

��Ӳ�ҵ��ж��Ŀǰ��š��Ϻ��š��켯�ŷ��豸�ı��ռȫ��豸��70%��ҡ�2008��ǰ��6��Ų��ռ�ܲ��ı��70-80%֮�両��֮��ˮ�硢��ҵ��ߣ��Լ��豸��ҵ��С��ҵת��ĳ�Ч��Ų��ռ�ܲ��ı��½��½��Ȳ��󣬶��ȶ��66%-70%��Χ֮�ڡ�

��ռȫ��ı��Ȳ��2001��17%��ߵ�2012��28%��缯�Ų��ռȫ��ش�2001��18%��ߵ�2008��26%��֮�󶩵��Ų��٣� 2010��20%��£��Ϻ��Ų��ռȫ��ؽϸߣ�2001��ȫ��27%��һֱ��2006�꣬��Ƚ��ȶ��֮��½��½��Ȳ��󣬶��Ҷ��20%��ϣ�2012��Ϊ22%��

��1.3 ��

��20��60-70��ҹ�ˮ��豸�Ѿ��ʼ��׳��ڡ�21��ͣ��Ѷȸ��ĵ��ݹ��ʽ��͸�ˮͷ��ʽ��Ҳ��ʼ��ڡ�1983�꣬��缯��б�ͻ�˹̹�Ŷŵ�վ21��ǧ�߻��飬��ҹ��ͻ��豸��׳��ڵ��˺󣬻��Ȳ��󡣡�ʮһ�塱��ˮ��ռ��ڷ��豸�ܲ��ı��ش�2006��1.92%��ߵ�2011��21.44%��ɼ��Ȼ��Ź��г��漤�ң��֮�ܹ��ʾ��ơ��ȫ�Լ��ʷ��յ��Ӱ�죬��Ŀִ�з��ռӴ�2012��ˮ��½��

��2. �ش��豸��Ԥ��

��2.1 δ��ʮ��Ӱ��չ�ļ��

��1��й��ý��ƽ�ȷ�չ�ڣ��ٶȻ��䣬��ʮ��塱Ϊ9%��ʮ��塱Ϊ6.5%��£�

��2��й��ý��ת��ڡ�ת�ͽ��ʣ��Ͷ��ʣ��ı侭�÷�չ��Ͷ�ʵ�״��

��3��ҹ��ԭ��ϼ��ֵ�ڣ��ɫ��ʯ��Ʒ��2020��ǰ��ﵽ��߷�ֵ��˺��ȶ��䣻

��4��й��ʼ��ڡ��ָ��Դ��Ҫ��ƣ��ŷż�ЧҪ��ơ�Ҫʵ��ޱ�Ȼ��漰ָ��ķֽ�Ϳ��ƣ�Ҳ��ȻӰ�쵽��ķ�չ�ٶȣ�

��5��ԴĿ��Դ��ճ̡�

��2.2 ��豸��Ԥ��

��Ԥ��һ��ܸ��ӵļ��Ϊֹ�ҹ��δ��ʮ�־�ϸ׼ȷ��Ԥ�ⷽ��Ĳ��˹��Ԥ��ķ�ʽ��һЩ��Ԥ��Ļ��ϲ��ۺϷ��жϡ��й��չ�ٽ��ᡢ�е��ͳ�ƹ滮��е��ҵ��豸��Ĺ�ͬ�е��Ŀ��⡶�ҹ��ش��װ��켰��о��е��Ƽ��

��2.3 2015��2020��װ��ṹ��Ԥ��

��3�� ش��豸��Ԥ��

��3.1 ��ʮ��塱��2011-2015�꣩��Ԥ��

��3.1.1 ��飺9000��ǧ��

��ʮһ�塱�ڼ��Ѿ�ʵ��˴�30��ǧ�ߡ�60��ǧ��ٽ��60��ǧ�ߺ�100��ǧ�߳��ٽ硢��ٽ��Ĺ��ɣ��60��ǧ�߳��ٽ��ڣ�100��ǧ�߼��Ҫ��գ��ﵽ��Ʒ��30��ǧ��ѭ��¯��60��ǧ��ѭ��¯��ơ��죬��ʮ��塱�ڼ�ͨ��ʾ��ȼ��ͨ��δ��б�9F��ѭ��ɴ�39-40��ǧ�ߣ��ʿɴ�70%��ϣ��Ȳ��⼼��ת�ó�Ϊ��ѵ㣬9E��6B��ֵ��ҹ��ܷ��硢��硢��ȷ��硢IGCC��ȵ��ǡ�ʮ��塱�ڼ��ص㷢չ��

��3.1.2 ˮ��飺2200��ǧ��

��ˮ��豸��ʵ��˴ӵ��20��ǧ��80��ǧ�ߵ��Ѿ��߱��30��ǧ�߳�ˮ��ܻ��Ͷ��ʺ��ʮ��塱�ڼ��ص��ʵ��ڵ�16�׳�ˮ��ܻ��顣��26MW��ϫ��豸��

��3.1.3 ��飺1500��ǧ��

��Ŀǰ��1500��ǧ�ߣ��ȫ��󡣡�ʮ��塱�ڼ�Ҫ��˱��װ�á��ϵͳ��еȲ��ʵ��Ҫ��Ϊֱ��ֱ��Ϊ1MW��1.5MW��2MW��3MW��5MW��6MW�ȡ�½��3 MW��5 MW��Ϊ��͡�

��3.1.4 �˵��飺1000��ǧ��

��Ϳ��

��ҵĿǰ�Ѿ߱��߱��CNP300��CNP600��CPR1000��AP1000��EPR��CAP1400��20��ǧ�߸��ֻ��͵��

��ӹ�Ӧ��

��Ŀǰ��ں˵��豸��ҵ�߱�ÿ��Լ10�װ��ǧ�߼��˵��飨��Ľ��ͺ��˵��飩��ͻ�е��ҵ�߱��Լ12�׺˵�ͼ��Ͷͼ��Ĺ��д��Ż��

��3.2 ��ʮ��塱��2016-2020�꣩��Ԥ��

��豸��ʣ��ܼ��Ż��Ƿ�չ��򡣳��Ȼ��δ��װ��е��װ��½��ԷŻ��Ǽ��ƽ��ܼ��Ŷ�ʵʩ��ȵġ��ϴ�ѹС��ռ䲻��Ŀǰȫ��γɵĻ��豸��ֽϴ�ķſգ��ʰ��Ȼ��

��ˮ��ȶ��װ��ȫ��ˮ��Ŵ��ͷ��ص��𣬹��ҵ��Ҫ��չ��ĳ�ˮ��ܵ�վ��

��豸��в��ܵĻ��ϣ��߷��Ĳ��Ż��ܣ��ȶ��ͳɱ��

��˵��豸��ÿ��8-10��˵��Ĺ��󣬺˵��豸��ʴ�85%��ϡ�ͬʱ�߱�Ϊ��֪ʶ��Ȩ��CAP1400��Ƚ�ѹˮ�Ѻ˵��ṩ��豸��

��ˮ��ܻ��߱��ˮ��ܻ��

��δ��豸��ռ��Ҫ��ڵ��ṹ��ص㷢չ�ķ��ͺ˵��Դ��Լ��ĳ�ˮ��ܻ��顣˭�ڷ��豸��Ʒ�ṹ��ռ��˭��ڽ��ķ�չ�л�þ��ơ�

��3.3 2021-2030��Ԥ��

��2021-2030��䣬��γ��걸�ľ��֪ʶ��Ȩ�Ļ�硢ˮ�硢��ˮ��ܻ��顢ȼ��ֻ��˵硢��硢̫��ܷ��豸��ơ��ϵ��󣬲��г��ݶ

��Դ�� й��г��